Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Bernanke - Recovery in 2010


With Bernanke attempted to provide insight into US monetary policy, global markets tried to hold steady while moving into record lows. Discussing the reluctance of international banks to engage in similar fiscal expansions, Bernanke pointed out that a complete recovery will require a "global recovery." Markets in Asia dropped to a five year low, with China's largest oil producer PetroChina losing 4.1% with a drop in crude prices.

While South African investments continue to plummet, Sasol remains an interesting play. Squeezing synthetic fuel and chemicals from natural gas and coal make this company a long term beneficiary of global energy demand. While production benefits remain down the road, currency devaluation makes this an interesting long term play to pick up now.

And for a US energy trade check out XTO Energy. At about 9 times earnings, they are ready to start growing next year and production is up.
Droughts in Argentina are testing the political leadership of President Cristina Kirchner. Defections from her Vice President may have her reconsidering the wisdom of raising the export tax on soybeans. Unhappy gauchos began a short term halt in the sale of grain and beef to prod a reduction in taxes and export controls. Steering clear of drought issues, APCO Argentina is a Tulsa based company with primary oil and gas operations in the Argentina. No debt, $50 million in cash and yield of 1.6% might make this worth a look.
In neighboring Brazil, aerospace manufacturer Embraer announced plans to cut 4,200 workers related to a lack of global demand. Is this an opportunity to get into the world's 4th largest plane producer? Perhaps, but there will probably remain some time to fetch a decent value for this 2 billion market cap giant. Hold tight for for now.
And global defense contractor Lockheed Martin has been beaten down because of expectations of reduced government spending. They are have major global market exposure, recently inked a new $3 billion deal with the UAE and a $800mm deal for Turkish fighters. They maintain top clients and maybe a a good value at this level.

No comments:

Post a Comment