Krewe du Obama

Obama made his first formal speech to congress on Mardi Gras evening. "Fat Tuesday" is recognized by many Catholics - and many not so Catholic - as the last day of excess and indulgence to prepare for a 40 day period of discipline and self denial prior to the Easter celebration. Tossing stimulus dollars off the government boat has received mixed market results. These debt building trinkets are certainly a crowd-pleaser. But combined with the seemingly unlimited printing press of the fed, will this kick start the economy, avoid deflation, prevent future inflation and fix the woes of the credit, real estate and manufacturing markets? With most of the denial aimed at Wall Street bonuses, it is no wonder much of the marketplace is reacting with relative indifference.

Bank stress testing begins today under the Treasury's Capital Assistance Program. The mystery of what this will reveal that is not already understood and the impact on the banks themselves is like opening a box of year old chocolates. Toss the incomplete Phoenix suburban real estate development to the private sector and let the banks get on with some real lending.

Onto the world. Asia bounced from yesterday's five year lows today. The yen's slight slide probably helped give Toyota a slight jump start yesterday, but shares are off in initially trading today. Owning a auto maker may not appear to be a great move in this environment, but Toyota certainly bears consideration if you can convince yourself that the world will but cars and they will buy cars from an established leader in efficient vehicle production. Gas prices are deceptively comforting now. But if gas heads north in any meaningful way in the next year, pent up world wide vehicle demand is not likely to favor Detroit's cheap gas, Hemi inspired models that have been refined in the last decade. Consumers will need to restock and Toyota is the best of breed for the type of auto that the rebound will be seeking.

And Bollywood, the largest producer of films worldwide, breaks the barrier at the Oscars with a solid Slumdog Millionaire sweep. But since winning the lotto is better movie script than investment play, Indian IT giant Infosys is worth keeping an eye on. Falling under criticism for a perceived policy of risk aversion, they might be a solid play to step into the outsourcing business that has a solid foothold in India. Executing carefully in a time of slow demand is probably a prudent way to survive the long term without having to cook the books approach taken by some other Indian firms.